Why Obama will lose in 2012

 

Why Obama will lose in 2012

Americans will support their President when he makes mistakes and when he tries to get things done and fails.  We have seen this time and again with both Democrats and Republicans.

Even when Bush started to get things terribly wrong the base was with him.  Even when there were no WMD the base was with him. 

The party base supports the leader as long as the leader supports the base.  This is a well known formula for success.

Presidents are given a great deal of latitude and can fail and still maintain a strong base as long as they stay the course.  The same is true for the independent voters that voted for the president.  The issues this group cares about are different from the one the base cares about. 

The real key to a second term is how well the president has done three things:

1.    Maintained his base – Republicans = right-wing nut- jobs; Democrats = left-wing Wackos

2.    Recorded some major successes in his first term (Bush the tax cuts)

3.    Keep his word on key issues important to independent voters      

All presidents must win the majority of independent voters and these voters don’t really care about the same issues the base cares about.

The single most important issue for both the base and independent voters is HONESTY.  These two groups will stay with a failing president if they feel the president is being honest. 

The Presidents who have gotten in the most trouble in the last 30 years are the ones the voters felt were liars.  The Presidents who fall into this category are Nixon, Clinton and to some extent Bush (no WMD and no connection between Al Qaeda and Iraq).  The other President who got into trouble was felt to be weak – Carter.      

Obama ran for office on the following:

·         Close GITMO

·         Stop military trials that deny prisoners their right to a fair trial

·         Stop spying on Americans without a warrant

·         Get rid of the Patriot Act

·         Get out of Iraq

·         Stop the wars and the threats and negotiate for peace

·         Change healthcare and make it universal

·         Implement financial reforms to insure Wall Street and the banks don’t continue their fraudulent activities

 Millions of new voters came out to support this agenda and many worked night and day for his election.  Those voters made the difference and without them he would not have won.

The most direct way to characterize what Obama has done is – HE LIED.

Once in office Obama became a right-wing Republican.  He has done none of the above and began to embrace the policies of the Bush gang and the Republicans.

He also refuses to fight for anything.  He continually takes positions and then backs down when opposed without a fight.  He now looks very weak and unwilling to fight for what he believes, if he believes in anything.

He has kept the Bush gang and made them his own- Rightwing war monger at Defense Gates; new war monger Clinton at State; Wall Street defender Geithner at Treasury and Wall Street and big bank defender Bernanke at the Fed.

He has betrayed his own party over and over again on all the major issues.

He now sounds just like Bush continuing the 911 fear mongering while defending his increase of 30,000 American troops in Afghanistan.  If we don’t do this, he says, we will have another 911 or worse.  Al Qaeda will take over if we leave Afghanistan.

Obama will lose the election in 2012 if the republicans can do just one thing: nominate someone who is not a Right-Wing Nut-Job.  If they nominate any moderate, well spoken Republican who talks about moderate issues Obama will lose and he should lose based on his lies and his spinelessness.

Am I right?  What do you think?

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